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Why savings moving again

Capital markets in the near future to the good that caused "saving move" tide of important causes. However, industry insiders said, "saving move" would be a normal future, large amount of savings in part outflow and deposit demand is normal. Of course, this "normal" also relates to the Bank's management. Some analysts believe that the deposits of demand will exert positive effects on reducing the cost of commercial bank debt, conducive to improving the commercial banks ' operating profits, but will also directly affect the stability of the commercial bank debt business.  

On November 15, the October run credit data released by the Central Bank's Shanghai headquarters, Shanghai renminbi deposits for the month from the greatly reduced which city's Renminbi savings deposits decreased 96.89 billion yuan, up 59.94 billion yuan reduction. Significant reduction in savings deposits in Shanghai, does that mean "saving move" the tide is coming? 

In fact, over the past few years, "saving move" several times an ebb.  

In recent years, the first wave of apparent "savings move" trend appears in the 2006 to 2007. People's bank financial figures released by the October 2006 monthly decrease of 7.6 billion yuan in savings deposits, which pull the haven't appeared "saving move" surge unfolds. In particular, in April 2007 and May, savings deposits monthly decreased more rapidly, in April, reducing the 167.4 billion yuan, May reduce 278.4 billion yuan, continuous record monthly maximum drop. Meanwhile, deposits of demand was evident. Accompanied, is China's stock market during this period out of the amazing Super Bull.  

A second wave of apparent "savings move" tides appeared in 2009. In late 2008, central to counter the negative impact of the international financial crisis, unveiled economic stimulus package, including 4 trillion yuan investment, domestic macroeconomic start bottom, with great confidence in the domestic capital market, a stock market recovery. In this context, "saving move" tide occurred in mid-2009, and in August of that year the deposits of households reduced by 80 billion yuan in October 2009 and residents ' deposits were reduced substantially 250.7 billion yuan, "move" phenomenon is more obvious.  

Now, this "savings move" tide to come again? Central Bank data for October in Shanghai has been given part of the answer, and statistics change significantly throughout the country. People's bank financial data showed November 11 in October, Renminbi deposits increased 176.9 billion yuan, up 112.8 billion yuan in less, with household deposits reduce 700.3 billion yuan in 2009, the lowest since. One-month decline in resident deposits of more than 700 billion yuan, which many analysts said, and a fierce wave of "saving move" are flocking to the tide.  

"Saving move" Chao's arrival, and is directly related to higher inflation expectations. So far this year, inflation expectations higher for public attention. Seen from the CPI index, September CPI rose 3.6%, and has just published the October CPI rose a more than expected was reached 4.4%, up to a 25-month high. As the prices of farm produce rose sharply, CPI high expectations of continued delay continue to be strengthened. Analysis and prediction of November CPI may hit a record high, jumped to 4.7%. Inflation expectations continued to rise, residents ' deposits at risk of falling. China's high savings rates, deposits are the most important people of the financial assets, with the CPI rising, negative interest rate situation it is difficult to avoid, is difficult for the residents of savings against inflation and to maintain, will deposit to the stock and property markets, gold investment options transfer become the choice of many people.  

Capital markets to do well is a "saving move" tide of important causes. In recent years, two significant "move" tide watching, along with the domestic stock market continues to go well, especially from 2006 to 2007, a stock market bull market enormous wealth effect for two consecutive years, has raised deposits decreased continuously. Central Bank has just published in the October financial data, household deposits sharply reduce 700 billion yuan, meanwhile, rare in the domestic stock market rose. On the premise of lack of investment channels for domestic, when inflation expectations higher, residents value, alternative way limited, stock and property markets are the most important tools. To curb the excessively rapid rise of housing prices in some cities, entered a period of continuous regulation of the domestic real estate market, continuous stream of tough regulation policies for future house price trends there is a lot of uncertainty, property market turnover also Contracting sharply, it makes a lot of investment home buyers away. When the property prices dropped after limited investment channels, the stock market became more and more people are choosing.  

Never view, ample liquidity in the market at home and abroad, as well as international "hot money" emerging economies continued to pour into the background, difficult to reverse in the short term inflation expectations, which will continue to accelerate, "saving move" trend. But on the other hand, after after consecutive rally in domestic a-share market in the recent reappearance of plummeting trend, even though the market had not been improved trend analysis to better, but to some extent will "move" savings with a risk alert. However, industry insiders said, "saving move" would be a normal future, large amount of savings in part outflow and deposit demand is normal. Of course, this "normal" also relates to the Bank's management. Some analysts believe that the deposits of demand will exert positive effects on reducing the cost of commercial bank debt, conducive to improving the commercial banks ' operating profits, but will also directly affect the stability of the commercial bank debt business.  
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